ID HOTELIER - It has been several years since we provided forecasts of international visitor arrivals to Indonesia. At the time we said, “making detailed projections about the timing and nature of the recovery of foreign visitors to Indonesia might seem like a fool’s errand at this stage of the COVID-19 pandemic”. We cannot say the same thing today. The outlook is becoming a little clearer.
Without knowing when some governments will lift or ease restrictions on international travel and when airlines will resume more expansive services between countries, forecasting international travel remains a challenging task.
We now forecast that international visitors to Indonesia will grow by about 181% from 1.6 million in 2021 to 4.4 million in 2022. Visitor arrivals are forecast to grow by 105% in 2023 to 9 million. We expect visitors to grow at a CAGR of 32% over the next five years to reach 17.6 million in 2027. Full recovery is expected in 2016 with 16.8 million visitors.
Full recovery is likely to mask a wide range of growth paths for different source markets as illustrated by the current rates of recovery. Visitor numbers from France, Germany, and the UK are currently running at 39.5%, 37%, and 31% of 2019 levels. These can be compared with China's 4%, Japan's 9%, and Malaysia's 12%.
While Asia’s recovery path for Indonesia stands at 13.4%, Indonesia’s strategic location in the Asia-Pacific region will continue to support robust visitor growth in the future.
ABOUT WRITER
Ross Woods is a seasoned hotel investment advisor with over 30 years of global experience in hotel asset management, portfolio management, and hotel advisory services. Known for his collaborative-based consulting style that integrates a high level of strategic and analytical expertise, his “smarts” are sought by clients to solve complex issues, make better decisions and realize the highest risk-adjusted investment returns. His clients include banks, private investors, REITs and hotel management companies in the United States, South East Asia, Australasia, Europe, and Dubai.
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